Safe Withdrawal Rate Stress Test
Test how long your portfolio survives at 3–5% withdrawal rates across bear, base, and bull market scenarios.
Safe Withdrawal Rate Stress Test
Test how long your portfolio survives at different withdrawal rates across bear, base, and bull market scenarios.
Stress test — 30-year retirement
Portfolio balance remaining at end of 30 years. Red = depleted, amber = thin, green = healthy.
| SWR | Annual | Monthly | Bear (4%) | Base (6%) | Bull (8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | $30,000 | $2,500 | $951,738 | $2,618,414 | $5,718,063 |
| 3.5% | $35,000 | $2,917 | $569,794 | $2,097,568 | $4,993,964 |
| 4%(classic) | $40,000 | $3,333 | $187,851 | $1,576,721 | $4,269,865 |
| 4.5% | $45,000 | $3,750 | Depleted yr 28 | $1,055,875 | $3,545,766 |
| 5% | $50,000 | $4,167 | Depleted yr 25 | $535,029 | $2,821,667 |
3%
Ultra-conservative
Withstands almost any market scenario. Good for 40+ year retirements.
4%
The classic rule
The Trinity Study benchmark. Works for ~30-year retirements in most scenarios.
5%
Aggressive
Leaves little margin. Consider only with flexible spending or part-time income.